Common Sports Handicapping Myths
I get several questions a day about the following topics, and it seems to me that a majority of the betting public believes at least one of these myths, so I want to set the record straight.
Myth: It's better to play only a small number of games each day.
FACT:
Many bettors believe it is a square (rookie, noob) mistake to bet a lot of games. In reality, it is a square mistake to THINK that betting a lot of games is a square mistake. Don't get me wrong, betting TOO MANY games IS a big mistake. By betting too many games, I simply mean betting games where there is no edge. People who do this are commonly referred to as action junkies - people who bet on games just for the thrill.
Sports betting is all about long term profit. I feel like a broken record saying it, but it's so true. Many people tend to overthink the psychology of sports betting, but it really is very simple. Bet any game where you believe you have a positive expected value and pass any game that you don't. Expected value is the expected return on a bet. For a -110 line, you have to be correct at least 52.4% of the time in order to have a positive return.
Say we bet an average of six plays per day at a 55% win rate on -110 lines. These numbers lead to an average profit of 0.303 units per day [6*((.55*.91)-.45) = 0.303]. Compare this to another handicapper who prides himself on providing one KILLER play each day. A little algebra tells us that this second handicapper would have to win 68.2% of of his plays to earn the same amount of profit as us. So, even if this guy caps at the magic mark of 60% he would still fall well short. Outwardly it may seem that this guy is a better handicapper than us (after all, he wins 60% of the time compared to our measley 55%), but what do we all know? That's right, it's all about profit.
Myth: You should play an odd number of games each day.
FACT
I was very surprised to hear multiple people tell me that I should be betting an odd number of games each day. Okay, I understand the reasoning behind this statement, but I hope everyone can see instantly how logically flawed this reasoning is.
The reasoning: If you bet an even number of games per day you have to go two games over .500 to have a winning day. If you bet an odd number of games you only have to go one game over .500 per day. While this is totally true (for spread and total bets at least) it underminds what we are trying to accomplish here.
The reality: I have ZERO interest in how many winning or losing days I have, and you shouldn't care either. If you paid money to get our picks, then I'm going to assume you are betting on sports to make money, not for fun. If you are betting to make money then the ONLY thing you should care about is long term profit. Betting an even number of games WILL reduce your chance of having a winning day, but throwing away a solid play (or even worse, adding a play with no edge) will do much more damage.
The conclusion: During a given year it would be reasonable to say that you will have about 180 days with an even number of picks. If you were to drop one pick per day for each of those games, and each of your picks has a 55% hit rate at -110 lines, you would be effectively throwing away just over nine units of profit on the year [180*((.55*.91) - .45) = 9.09]. So, don't worry about whether you have an even or odd number of plays, just play the games you like and be done with it.