Why 52.4% Means Nothing In Baseball
Most handicappers recognize 52.4% as the magic number. This is the minimum winning percentage a bettor must maintain in order to make a profit when laying 11 to win 10 (-110 line). This number is a very important benchmark when betting against the spread in Football or Basketball, but means almost nothing baseball. True, if you are betting the over/unders in baseball then you will still encounter the -110 line a fair amount. But, if you are putting your money on the run line or the money line then winning percentage isn't the factor that determines how much money you make
It's All About Profit
Many handicappers brag about how high their winning percentages are. But at the end of the day, who cares? If you are only betting as a hobby to make games a little more interesting then maybe winning percentage is more important than payout, but for those of us who treat handicapping as a business, profit is the only thing that matters. I once saw a betting system where the handicapper advised to only bet on teams that were -170 or better favorites. The system, at the time I read the article, had accrued a winning percentage of almost 60%. Most people look at that and think it is fantastic, but to make money on -170 lines you need to be winning 63% of your bets. At the same time, there are several successful bettors that only bet on underdogs. They may only win 40% of their games, but they MAKE MONEY!